If metal rises 5% while local currency per USD falls 3%, 1.05 × 0.97 = 1.0185: a 1.85% local reference rise. Two 10% increases produce 21%, not 20%. A 10% rise offset by a 10% fall produces −1%, not zero.
What is excluded?
Product premiums, taxes, fees and dealer spreads are held constant. The tool does not predict a future price; it calculates the consequence of your two assumptions. Use local currency per USD rather than its reciprocal.
A local reference price multiplies the USD metal price by the currency conversion. If the metal rises 5% while the conversion falls 3%, the combined factor is 1.05 × .97 = 1.0185. The local effect is +1.85%, not the +2% obtained by addition. This scenario measures the mathematical effect of simultaneous input changes; it does not forecast them.
One metal move, different currency outcomes
A 5% metal increase and a 5% FX decline produce 1.05 × .95 = .9975, a local-reference decline of .25%. If both rise 5%, 1.05 × 1.05 = 1.1025, an increase of 10.25%. Define both changes from the same starting period. Combining observations from unrelated dates changes what the calculation means.
It does not predict a dealer bid
The model holds quantity and fineness constant. Product premiums, bid-ask spreads, taxes and fees are not included automatically. A 1.85% reference change does not prove that actual resale proceeds will change by 1.85%. Use real dealer inputs for transaction costs and net proceeds; a scenario is not a price target or a buy signal.
Enter the initial all-in cost, final gross value, exit costs and cumulative inflation for the same period and currency. Results are period returns, not annualized returns.
Net period return—
Real period return—
Net value in start-period money—
Enter values and period inflation to calculate.
How is this calculated?
Net value = final gross value − exit costs. Net return = net value / initial cost − 1. Real return = (net value / initial cost) / (1 + inflation / 100) − 1. Value in start-period money = net value / (1 + inflation / 100).
Example: an initial cost of 100,000, gross value of 130,000 and exit costs of 2,000 produce a net return of 28%. With 30% inflation for that period, the real return is about −1.54%. A nominal gain alone does not establish a gain in purchasing power.
No automatic CPI or historical-price feed is used. You supply the observations. This model assumes one initial and one final value with no interim cash flows; additional purchases, sales, interest or dividends need separate cash-flow treatment. A spot-based final value produces a spot scenario; use actual buyback proceeds to model a sale.
WORKED EXAMPLE
Why not simply add the percentages?
Hypothetical metal move +5% · currency move −3%
Compound change in the local reference+1.85%Hypothetical illustration
Calculation steps and checks
Metal factor
1 + 0.05 = 1.05.
Currency factor
1 − 0.03 = 0.97.
Combine the factors
(1.05 × 0.97 − 1) × 100 = 1.85%. A starting reference of 100 becomes 101.85.
Before using the result
This is the mathematical result of assumptions, not a price forecast.
Premiums, spreads and fees are excluded; an actual transaction can differ.
Use changes for the same period. Do not combine movements measured over different dates.
Keep your calculation
Copy your inputs together with the results on screen.