Separate metal moves, FX changes and product premiums with three worked scenarios and a practical resale comparison.
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Two factors move the reference price
A local-currency fine gram reference equals USD per troy ounce divided by 31.1034768, multiplied by local currency per dollar. An unchanged metal price can still produce a local-currency gain when that exchange rate rises. When both factors move, multiply their return factors instead of adding percentages. OunceHub uses daily reference FX, which is different from an executable bank or dealer exchange rate.
Example 1: metal rises, FX falls
For illustration only, assume gold rises 5% in USD while local currency per dollar falls 3%. These are not current prices or a forecast. The local reference changes by 1.05 × 0.97 − 1 = 1.85%. Looking only at gold suggests 5%; adding the changes suggests 2%. Neither is the compound result. An illustrative starting reference of 100 becomes 101.85.
Example 2: both factors rise
If gold rises 4% and local currency per dollar rises 6%, the combined reference change is 1.04 × 1.06 − 1 = 10.24%. The extra 0.24 percentage points come from compounding. Spreads, fabrication and product premiums are excluded. Read the market reference first, then the actual dealer bid for your holding. A reference gain need not equal the net gain credited after a sale.
Example 3: FX can offset a metal decline
If USD gold falls 8% while local currency per dollar rises 10%, the result is 0.92 × 1.10 − 1 = 1.20%. Gold declines in dollars but rises in local reference terms in this scenario. This is not universal protection. A 10% metal decline combined with an 8% FX increase instead gives −2.80%. Assigning the moves to different factors changes the outcome.
The actual product adds another layer
A 10-gram item at 995 fineness contains a theoretical 9.95 grams of fine gold. Do not apply purity again to a dealer bid already quoted for that specific item. A purchase premium may not be recovered on sale. Product type, package condition and quantity restrictions can affect offers. Recording fabrication separately from metal value exposes costs that a price chart alone cannot show.
Choose the tool for the remaining question
The metal and FX scenario tool combines market-return factors. Dealer quote comparison evaluates actual offers and net proceeds. The break-even calculator identifies the resale threshold that covers acquisition cost and fees. Holdings valuation answers how much the quantity is worth. Select the question first and keep units and currencies consistent. These examples do not prescribe a personal portfolio allocation.
Related prices, tools and guides
Sources and reading note
This guide explains possible transmission channels. It is not a live attribution of a particular day’s price move. Worked scenarios are this site’s own arithmetic examples.